| Origin | Estimated Displaced | Primary Destination |
|---|---|---|
| Iran (internal) | 5,000,000 | Internal displacement: Tehran to rural, border to interior |
| Iraq | 3,000,000 | Internal + Jordan, Turkey, Kurdistan region |
| Iran (external) | 2,000,000 | Turkey, Iraq (Kurdistan), Pakistan, Afghanistan, Europe |
| Lebanon | 1,500,000 | Syria (reverse flow), Cyprus, Turkey, Europe |
| Yemen | 1,000,000 | Internal displacement, Djibouti, Oman |
| Syria (re-displaced) | 500,000 | Turkey (again), Lebanon (again), Europe |
| Turkey (internal) | 500,000 | Kurdish border regions to western Turkey |
| UAE/Gulf expats | 500,000 | Return to home countries (India, Pakistan, Philippines) |
| Jordan (transit) | 300,000 | Iraqi refugees transiting to Jordan |
| Pakistan (border) | 200,000 | Baluchistan to Punjab/Sindh |
| Total | 14,500,000 |
The Middle East imports 50-80% of its food, paid for largely with oil revenue.[19] Under worst case, oil revenue disappears (can't export through blocked routes) while food import costs spike (oil-driven transportation and fertilizer costs). This creates a double squeeze: less money to buy food that costs more.[45]
Iran (88M people) imports 30% of its wheat and most of its rice. Iraq (43M) imports 40% of food needs. Yemen (33M), already the world's worst food crisis, faces outright famine. Lebanon (5.5M) depends almost entirely on food imports through a port system that may be damaged.[19]