Excluded: Mass media (CNN, BBC, NYT, Bloomberg opinion), tech journalism, social media, blog posts, aggregator sites, unverified claims.
This report is a worst-case scenario analysis for internal research purposes. It is not investment advice. All projections assume maximum escalation at every decision point, which has a cumulative probability of approximately 5%. The report is designed to stress-test assumptions and prepare contingency plans, not to predict outcomes.
Casualty and displacement estimates are derived from historical conflict data and scaled to population and conflict intensity. They are order-of-magnitude projections subject to significant uncertainty. Market projections are based on Monte Carlo simulation with worst-case regime parameters and historical precedent analysis.